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Analyzing Historical Events and Their Impact on the Future with Peter Zeihan - Tugboat Institute

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Video by: Nathan Watson
Explore the insights from Peter Zeihan about the significance of historical figures like Stalin in shaping global alliances. Learn how past events influenced the world's dynamics and alliances, as discussed on March 19, 2024.
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0:21
So let's just launch right, Stalin!
0:25
This is the most important dude from the last half millennia, not because of who he was
0:30
or what he did because of who he scared us.
0:34
We were so terrified that we were going to have to face down the Red Army and the planes
0:38
of Europe at the end of the war that we changed how everything would work because we knew
0:43
we needed allies, not to stand behind us or shoulder to shoulder with us, but to stand
0:47
in front of us to suck up ammo.
0:48
And since the Europeans had just been through the toughest war in human history,
0:53
volunteers for that sort of job were in short supply.
0:56
So we had to bribe them.
0:58
We had to change the way the world works so that they would want to serve in that role.
1:04
And so what we did was we sent out our Navy to patrol the global oceans,
1:08
the only Navy that had survived the war,
1:11
so that anyone could safely go anywhere at any time,
1:14
interface with any market, any community, any commodity,
1:18
without having to have a military escort.
1:22
If in exchange you would join the Cold War.
1:26
Now, a lot of people call this different things.
1:29
Some of it call it the Bretton Woods system.
1:31
I call it the American-led order.
1:33
You all know it as globalization.
1:35
It has always been a security ploy
1:37
by the United States to fight an enemy.
1:41
But then World War II turned into the Cold War,
1:44
turned into the end of the Cold War.
1:46
In 1992, the strategic justification for this system went away.
1:51
And the Americans had never invested their economy in it
1:54
because it was a strategic play.
1:56
So we started down a spiral of ever more internally focused
2:01
narcissistic, populist political contests
2:05
that brought in a series of leaders that bit by bit
2:10
backed away from the system culminating with the last two.
2:14
From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we have ever
2:20
had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
2:23
The big difference between the two, Trump tweeted out policy, Biden takes those tweets, runs
2:29
them through a grammar checker, and puts them into the bureaucracy so they all last him.
2:33
The two most economically populous leaders we have ever had, and it's a strongly bipartisan
2:39
and push. Now, this whole strategy, it's collapsed, us moving away, there's a thousand
2:45
stories to tell here, but for this crowd, let's start with the money. This is net worth
2:52
by age bracket, and it's a familiar story. You get older, you get better at your job,
2:57
maybe you take a new job, maybe you start a business, your net worth goes up. But the
3:07
year, where an on average in the United States and Canada, your single biggest expense of
3:13
your life, your youngest child becomes someone else's problem.
3:19
And the money you save by being an empty nester, you used to pay down what is typically
3:24
your second biggest expense, which is your homestead, and on average by 55 that is paid
3:30
down as well.
3:31
So from 55 to 65, the 10 years before your retirement, your income is the highest it will ever
3:36
be your expenses are under control, that delta is 70% of global private capital. That is
3:43
literally where the money is. And then you turn 65 and you retire and you liquidate. Because
3:49
if there's a currency crash or market crash, you no longer have the income to recover. You'll

Video Summary & Chapters

No chapters for this video generated yet.

Video Transcript

0:21
So let's just launch right, Stalin!
0:25
This is the most important dude from the last half millennia, not because of who he was
0:30
or what he did because of who he scared us.
0:34
We were so terrified that we were going to have to face down the Red Army and the planes
0:38
of Europe at the end of the war that we changed how everything would work because we knew
0:43
we needed allies, not to stand behind us or shoulder to shoulder with us, but to stand
0:47
in front of us to suck up ammo.
0:48
And since the Europeans had just been through the toughest war in human history,
0:53
volunteers for that sort of job were in short supply.
0:56
So we had to bribe them.
0:58
We had to change the way the world works so that they would want to serve in that role.
1:04
And so what we did was we sent out our Navy to patrol the global oceans,
1:08
the only Navy that had survived the war,
1:11
so that anyone could safely go anywhere at any time,
1:14
interface with any market, any community, any commodity,
1:18
without having to have a military escort.
1:22
If in exchange you would join the Cold War.
1:26
Now, a lot of people call this different things.
1:29
Some of it call it the Bretton Woods system.
1:31
I call it the American-led order.
1:33
You all know it as globalization.
1:35
It has always been a security ploy
1:37
by the United States to fight an enemy.
1:41
But then World War II turned into the Cold War,
1:44
turned into the end of the Cold War.
1:46
In 1992, the strategic justification for this system went away.
1:51
And the Americans had never invested their economy in it
1:54
because it was a strategic play.
1:56
So we started down a spiral of ever more internally focused
2:01
narcissistic, populist political contests
2:05
that brought in a series of leaders that bit by bit
2:10
backed away from the system culminating with the last two.
2:14
From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we have ever
2:20
had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
2:23
The big difference between the two, Trump tweeted out policy, Biden takes those tweets, runs
2:29
them through a grammar checker, and puts them into the bureaucracy so they all last him.
2:33
The two most economically populous leaders we have ever had, and it's a strongly bipartisan
2:39
and push. Now, this whole strategy, it's collapsed, us moving away, there's a thousand
2:45
stories to tell here, but for this crowd, let's start with the money. This is net worth
2:52
by age bracket, and it's a familiar story. You get older, you get better at your job,
2:57
maybe you take a new job, maybe you start a business, your net worth goes up. But the
3:07
year, where an on average in the United States and Canada, your single biggest expense of
3:13
your life, your youngest child becomes someone else's problem.
3:19
And the money you save by being an empty nester, you used to pay down what is typically
3:24
your second biggest expense, which is your homestead, and on average by 55 that is paid
3:30
down as well.
3:31
So from 55 to 65, the 10 years before your retirement, your income is the highest it will ever
3:36
be your expenses are under control, that delta is 70% of global private capital. That is
3:43
literally where the money is. And then you turn 65 and you retire and you liquidate. Because
3:49
if there's a currency crash or market crash, you no longer have the income to recover. You'll
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