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- China's Demographic Collapse: Impending End in 10 Years | Analysis by Peter Zeihan
China's Demographic Collapse: Impending End in 10 Years | Analysis by Peter Zeihan
Discover the alarming prediction by Chinese demographers that China is on the brink of a catastrophic demographic collapse, projected to end within the next 10 years. Understand the potential implications for the nation's future and the global landscape in this insightful analysis by Peter Zeihan.
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Video Transcript
And this is not the low case forecast now.
There are a number of independent Chinese demographers who say that those yellow bars should be more than twice as large.
China is not a country in demographic decay.
China is a country in the final stages of absolute demographic collapse.
And it will cease existing as a unified industrialized nation state within 10 years.
Now, how it goes down, what happens the next day, those are going to be two of the questions
of our age.
And for those of you who know Chinese history, you will recognize that this has happened
before.
This will be the 28th Chinese civilizational collapse.
But this time, everyone's urbanized and over.
And if you start throwing 60-somethings into land that is now rice paddy because the
good agricultural land is long gone, we're talking about a population collapse north of
70% over the next 20 to 30 years.
and whoever's left won't have skills or physical capability.
We're now in a situation where we can seriously talk about the end of the
Han ethnicity of this century.
Okay. Let's talk about us.
I am thrilled that I can say this.
Baby boomers don't matter anymore.
Oh, thank God.
We've been stressed about everything about the baby boomers since they burst upon the scene in the early 60s
And now now now now half of them have finally entered retirement and we can start talking about what's next the snake is finally
swallowing that watermelon
Bliss of course they're the baby boomers and it's all got to be about them
So they are rolling a couple grenades into the room on their way out
number one
capital
Half of the boomers have already retired.
That means half of them have already liquidated their life savings and gone from stocks and bonds
into relatively low and velocity investments like tea bills and cash.
The velocity of capital has slowed.
The cost of capital has roughly tripled in the last five years.
It will triple again in the next few years as the rest of them liquidate their savings upon retirement.
This isn't the Fed, this isn't Trump, this isn't Biden, this is not the business cycle,
this is the boomers saying goodbye.
And that's special way they have.
Second.
Labor.
Half of the boomers have already retired.
There are single largest concentration of skilled labor.
The inflation we've been experiencing in the last few years, I'm not suggesting there aren't a lot of things in play,
there are a lot of things in play, but the single biggest piece is labor inflation.
And that will last until such time as another large generation fills their shoes.
And that won't be for quite some time.
So if you're going to ignore everything else that I say, remember this, higher and borrow, higher and borrow,
higher and borrow, because the boomers aren't done leaving yet, and capital and labor costs
are going to go up sharply from here for years, and in some cases decades.
This is the best macroeconomic environment for expansion we're going to have in quite
some time, more than a minute.
